Life choices are seldom based on statistical probability. Let me give you an example. In downtown Seattle, there are many parking garages underneath skyscrapers. Let’s say my car is parked on Sublevel 3. When I exit the elevator, I go through a door, and directly in front of me is a bi-directional driving lane which I must cross to get to my car. The probability of getting hit by a car (if I don’t look both ways) changes by the hour. At 7am, when people are arriving for work, the probability of getting hit is quite high - say, 90 percent. But if I leave work late in the evening, at 8pm, the probability of getting hit by a car if I cross without looking is much lower - say, 10 percent. But - here’s the important thing - I don’t decide whether or not to look both ways based on the statistical probability. Instead, I ALWAYS look both ways. Why? Because in the real world, we treat these scenarios as binary: one/zero, yes/no, true/false, will happen/won’t happen. At any hour of the day, I could get hit when I walk cross the driving lane without looking. I treat the likelihood of getting injured as 50/50. But by looking both ways, I change the odds. I walk across the driving lane when I’m sure the probability of getting hit is zero.
In summary,
1) People seldom make decisions based solely on statistical probability.
2) Decisions are usually made based on world view and value judgements.
3) Even when people recognize a statistically probable outcome, their behavior will indicate that they consider only two practical statistical values: 50/50, and 0/100.